Estimate of risk and hazard on the maritime traffic in the waters of Greenland

There has always been hazards linked with sailing ships no matter where in the world this has been done, indeed there will always be an increased hazard when sailing in the waters of Greenland.

Torsdag d. 25. juni 2015
Pernille Schellerup Gemynthe
Emnekreds: Sikkerhed til søs.

(an)

Estimate of risk and hazard on the maritime traffic in the waters of Greenland

There has always been hazards linked with sailing ships no matter where in the world this has been done, indeed there will always be an increased hazard when sailing in the waters of Greenland. This is primarily due to the harsh conditions in that region; the constant low temperatures, limited number of inhabitants, decreased possibilities for communication and constraints placed on successful rescue missions increase the hazards when navigating the waters of Greenland.

This project aims to analyse some of the various factors and potential hazards that are involved while sailing through the waters of Greenland. However, it does not include environmental factors. These are:
  • Collision (with ship, ice or ground)
  • Damage to the ship, cargo or crew
  • Beset in ice
  • Sinking or capsizing
  • Icing (decrease in stability)
  • Lack of training / information
  • Voyage planning
  • Traffic
  • Weather
  • Bad seamanship (human factor)
  • Rescue mission

The intended objective will be achieved by estimating the extent of the potential for the occurrence of the various hazards while sailing in Greenland and subsequently the different hazardous scenarios will be analysed. Through these efforts a calculation will be made of the overall estimated potential for the occurrence of the various hazardous scenarios.

If there are any doubts about the possibility a worst case scenario will always be proclaimed. In order to acquire a realistic view of these estimations the probabilities will be gathered through empirical data and interviews with sailors who have experience sailing through the waters of Greenland. There is a limited amount of statistical data simply because not all small or minor accidents or near misses are reported as they should. Therefore, the data that are available will be flawed.

The interviews will be completed with sailors who often sail the waters of Greenland and therefore have a thorough understanding of how the conditions influence the maritime sector. The answers will be based on the individual sailor’s beliefs and experiences and will be an estimate. In fact, the answers will give the best estimate as possible but will still be an estimate.

The calculations will be done within a Bayesian network which will describe the different scenarios and the manifold possibilities of the outcomes. A large network will be created and the overall possibilities will be calculated. This will then be divided up into individual networks starting from the main hazard in order to be able to evaluate the individual hazards. The calculations will be performed in the freeware program AgenaRisk. This program uses Bayes’ equation for the calculations.

This project is completed by a holder of an STCW 95 A-II/2 and STCW 95 A-III/1 certificate, therefore previous experience gained from different types of ships and in-depth training will be applied.


Estimate of risk and hazard on the maritime traffic in the waters of Greenland